The Friendly Bear
David Capablanca
Episodes
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The SpaceX Give Away – 10/19/26
· 52 min
What if every child in America woke up one day as a shareholder in SpaceX? Sounds crazy, right? Well, Elon Musk just announced plans to give ONE share of SpaceX stock to every child in America! And we're talking about a potential $10.5 BILLION giveaway! On today's TraderMerlin, we're diving into Musk's latest announcement and asking some serious questions about the feasibility, financial impact an...
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Trading Week Wrap Up! – 10/16/26
· 56 min
Tesla's Roadster is making headlines, inflation is keeping traders on edge, earnings season is heating up, and apparently I've upset a few XRP investors! Just another week in the financial markets! On today's TraderMerlin, we're wrapping up the biggest stories of the week, examining what they mean for traders and investors, and taking a look at the trades I've made along the way. And yes, we're go...
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Top 5 Cryptos I'd Buy Right Now! — Who's Winning the Digital Asset Race? – 10/15/26
· 59 min
Thousands of cryptocurrencies. Trillions of dollars in market value. But if I could only pick FIVE, which ones would I buy right now? That's the question we're tackling on today's TraderMerlin! The cryptocurrency industry is evolving rapidly. Bitcoin continues to dominate the conversation, institutional investors are expanding their involvement, stablecoins are changing how money moves, and blockc...
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Crime Does Pay! — Bank of America's $1.2 Billion Money Laundering Scandal! – 10/14/26
· 57 min
What happens when one of America's largest banks fails to properly monitor trillions of dollars in financial transactions? Apparently, it gets hit with a $1.2 BILLION penalty! But here's the bigger question: Is that enough to change the behavior of a banking giant, or is it simply the cost of doing business? On today's TraderMerlin, we're digging into the latest enforcement action against Bank of...
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Memory Stock Crash? – 10/13/26
· 52 min
What happens when one announcement from China sends some of the world's biggest semiconductor stocks tumbling? That's exactly what we're seeing as ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), a Chinese memory-chip manufacturer, claims significant progress on a new technology that could challenge the dominance of Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. And Wall Street isn't taking the news lightly! Shares of major m...
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Trading Week Wrap Up – 10/09/26
· 53 min
Another trading week is in the books, and the markets are giving us plenty to think about! Oil prices are creating uncertainty. Commodities are making some interesting moves. Treasury yields continue to influence investor sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are navigating an evolving financial landscape, and equities are trying to figure out whether the next big move is higher—or whether a pullback is ove...
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Are We In An AI Bubble?! – 10/08/26
· 57 min
Artificial intelligence is changing the world. But does that mean AI stocks are worth any price? A viewer recently sent me a great question: Are we in an AI bubble, and how does today's market compare to the dot-com bubble of 2000? It's a question worth asking, especially with billions of dollars pouring into AI infrastructure, data centers, semiconductors and the companies promising to revolution...
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Is Now the Time To Buy Nike? — Bargain or Value Trap? – 10/07/26
· 58 min
Nike was once trading above $150. Today, it's around $34. So here's the obvious question: Has one of the world's most recognizable brands finally become a bargain—or is there a reason the stock has fallen this far? On today's TraderMerlin, we're putting the charts aside for a moment and digging into Nike from a fundamental perspective. Revenue. Earnings. Margins. Cash flow. Debt. Return on investe...
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Breaking Down Harvard's Stock Portfolio — The Good, the Bad & the Ugly! – 10/05/26
· 57 min
Harvard has a $50+ billion endowment—but where is some of that money actually invested? Today on TraderMerlin, we're cracking open the latest 13F filing from Harvard Management Company and taking a look inside Harvard's publicly disclosed stock portfolio. And I have to say... This portfolio probably isn't what most people would expect. Harvard's latest filing reports approximately $4.26 BILLION ac...
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Trading Q&A with TraderMerlin – 10/05/26
· 57 min
he mailbag is full, so today YOU get to set the agenda! On today's TraderMerlin, we're stepping away from the usual headline-driven show and diving into your questions about trading, technical analysis, risk management, cryptocurrency and market strategy. No single theme. No predetermined market narrative. Just your questions—and hopefully some useful answers! One of today's topics is NEAR Protoco...
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Trading Week Wrap Up! – 10/02/26
· 56 min
Another trading week is in the books—and September just gave us a lot to digest. The labor market is slowing. Inflation pressures haven't disappeared. Manufacturing is still expanding. Treasury yields remain above 5%. And after the Federal Reserve's September rate hike, traders are already trying to figure out whether another one is coming. On today's TraderMerlin, we're putting all the pieces tog...
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Digital Asset Outlook with Matt Hougan – 10/1/26
· 59 min
Crypto is changing—and the next phase may look very different from the one that got us here. Today on TraderMerlin, I'm joined by Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, for a deep dive into the current state of cryptocurrency and digital assets—and where this rapidly evolving market may be headed next. Matt brings a particularly interesting perspective to this conversat...
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Nvidia Massive Share Buyback! - 09/28/26
· 52 min
How confident is Nvidia in Nvidia? Apparently...$150 BILLION confident. Nvidia just announced a massive $150 billion increase to its share-repurchase authorization, bringing its remaining buyback authorization to roughly $235 billion. That makes this one of the biggest share-buyback stories we've ever seen. But before you automatically assume that's bullish, there's a much more interesting questio...
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Trading Week Wrap Up! - 09/25/26
· 55 min
Another week in the books—and there was definitely no shortage of market-moving headlines. Interest rates are moving higher. Treasury yields are hitting levels we haven't seen in years. Economic data continues to challenge the idea that the economy is slowing dramatically. Tesla has fresh news out of Europe. And after all the anticipation surrounding the Trump-Xi meeting, the United States and Chi...
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Market Top Like 2022? - 09/24/26
· 54 min
We've seen this movie before...or have we? A viewer recently sent me an interesting comparison between the 2022 stock-market top and what we're seeing in the market today. At first glance, there are some similarities that are difficult to ignore. Stocks have enjoyed a powerful run. Valuations are elevated. Inflation is creating problems again. Treasury yields are surging. And perhaps most importan...
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Bond Trouble! - 09/23/26
· 1 h 03 min
The bond market is flashing another warning—and stocks are starting to pay attention. Treasury yields surged again today, with the 10-year yield climbing above 5.1% to its highest level since 2007, while shorter-term yields also pushed higher as traders increased their expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. On today's TraderMerlin, we're digging into the bond selloff and asking a...
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United State of Greenland?! - 09/21/26
· 55 min
Greenland isn't becoming the 51st state—but something very significant just changed in the Arctic. President Trump announced a new agreement between the United States, Denmark and Greenland that would dramatically expand America's long-term security role on the world's largest island. Trump says the agreement gives the United States "permanent control" over Greenland's security, while Denmark and...
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Trading Week Wrap Up! - 09/18/26
· 57 min
What a week. The Federal Reserve is hiking rates again, inflation remains stubborn, Washington is rewriting the rules for digital assets, Bitcoin is moving, and the Magnificent Seven are starting to tell very different technical stories. On today's TraderMerlin, we're wrapping up one of the more consequential trading weeks we've seen recently and connecting the dots between monetary policy, inflat...
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Digital Asset Debrief - 09/17/26
· 57 min
The digital-asset world is moving fast—and this week gave us plenty to talk about. The CLARITY Act may have stalled in Congress, but regulators aren't exactly sitting around waiting. On today's TraderMerlin, we're doing a full Digital Asset Debrief, breaking down several major developments that could reshape cryptocurrency, tokenization, stablecoins and the broader financial system. Perhaps the bi...
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Rate Hikes Begin with Bill Addiss! - 09/16/26
· 1 h 01 min
The Fed is hiking again. For the first time in more than three years, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates today, pushing the Fed Funds target range up 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. But the bigger story isn't today's quarter-point move. It's what comes NEXT. On today's TraderMerlin, I'm joined by longtime bond trader Bill Addiss to break down today's Fed decision and what it means for the b...
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The Clarity Act - 09/15/26
· 58 min
After more than a year of negotiations, hundreds of pages of legislation and enormous pressure from the crypto industry... The CLARITY Act just hit a wall in Washington. Today, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the landmark digital-asset market structure bill, falling short of the 60 votes needed to move forward. And with Congress preparing to leave Washington ahead of the November midterm electio...
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AI: Taming The Monster - 09/14/26
· 52 min
Artificial Intelligence promises to transform medicine, productivity, education, science and nearly every industry on the planet. There's just one small problem... Some of the people building the most powerful AI systems in the world are starting to worry about what they're creating. On today's TraderMerlin, we're looking at an extraordinary development in the AI race. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei,...
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Operation "Treasury Twist" — Can Washington Stop Yields From Rising? - 09/09/26
· 56 min
The bond market is sending Washington a message—and the Treasury is fighting back. Long-term Treasury yields have been climbing sharply, pushing borrowing costs higher and putting pressure on everything from mortgages and corporate debt to stock-market valuations. Now the U.S. Treasury is stepping in. On today's TraderMerlin, we'll look at what I'm calling Operation "Treasury Twist"—the Treasury's...
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Oil Surge! — Is $100 Crude Coming? - 09/08/26
· 56 min
Oil is surging again—and geopolitical risk is back in the driver's seat. Over the weekend, U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward two U.S. Navy warships. Now tensions are escalating around the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world. On today's TraderMerlin, we'll look at what this means fo...
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US Jobs! - 09/04/26
· 56 min
The latest U.S. jobs numbers are out—and apparently the labor market didn't get the memo that it was supposed to be slowing down! The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, well above expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Even better, June and July payrolls were revised higher by a combined 55,000 jobs. So...good news, right? Well, this is Wall Street, where good econo...
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Robo Taxi! - 09/03/26
· 59 min
No steering wheel. No pedals. No driver. Welcome to Tesla's vision of the future! 🚕🤖 On today's episode of TraderMerlin, we're heading to Austin, Texas, where Tesla is generating a massive wave of publicity around its Robotaxi network and purpose-built Cybercab. Tesla has already been operating autonomous Model Y Robotaxis in several cities, but today's Austin event puts the spotlight on somethi...
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The Beige Book! - 09/02/26
· 57 min
The Federal Reserve just released one of the most overlooked—and potentially revealing—reports on the U.S. economy. It's called the Beige Book. No, it's probably not going to make anyone's bestseller list. 📖 But if you're trying to figure out what the Fed might do next with interest rates, it's definitely worth paying attention to. On today's episode of TraderMerlin, we're digging into the latest...
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$100 Oil Ahead? - 09/01/26
· 57 min
Crude oil is surging again... And suddenly $100 oil doesn't seem so far away. Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran has sent another shock through the energy markets. U.S. forces launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets, two oil tankers were reportedly attacked while leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and concerns are once again growing about the security of one of the world's most...
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Wrapping Up August! - 08/31/26
· 58 min
August is officially in the books! And after another month of AI enthusiasm, strong corporate earnings, stubborn inflation, rising oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, Fed drama and some major market breakouts, it's time to step back from the daily noise and see where the money actually went. On today's episode of TraderMerlin, we're pulling up the charts and reviewing the performance of our Top...
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Trading Week Wrap Up! - 08/28/26
· 54 min
Another trading week is in the books... And today, we may have gotten our clearest look yet at how Kevin Warsh intends to run the Federal Reserve. In his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chairman, Warsh delivered a message Wall Street had been waiting for—giving investors important insight into how he views inflation, interest rates, employment, artificial intelligence and the future direction of...
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